According to The Kobeissi Letter, historical data shows that during previous US recessions, the federal budget deficit expanded by around 4% of GDP on average, which could mean an additional $1.3 trillion shortfall if a recession occurs in 2025 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 14, 2025). This significant fiscal deterioration may pressure the US dollar and increase liquidity risks, factors that often drive volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto traders should monitor US fiscal policy and macroeconomic developments closely, as increased deficit spending and potential monetary easing could impact Bitcoin and altcoin prices, as well as stablecoin demand.